Forecast of supply and demand of natural rubber in the world
International Rubber Research Organization (IRSG) released forecast to the current situation in Southeast Asia, you can plant the resources of rubber exhausted, that the global rubber in 2020 will be in short supply situation. With the existing capacity of 12.5 million tons, when the global consumption of natural rubber will reach 13.6 million tons, the demand greatly exceeds the production capacity.
And the recent market is also keen to discuss the next few years ANRPC supply capacity, then look at the main producing countries in Southeast Asia planting situation. From the total acreage, the total area of ANRPC in 2016 reached 11.54 million hectares, has been increasing. But the growth rate is decreasing year by year, from 4% in 2010 fell to 1.8% this year. It can be seen that IRSG predicts that the rubber planting area is exhausted or well documented.
The market is concerned about the supply of incremental or to fall on the new planting area, from the ANRPC new planting area, the beginning of 2012, the new plant area has declined rapidly from the new 480,000 hectares to 2016 years of 94,000 hectares. Low rubber prices do hit the ANRPC rubber growing enthusiasm. From the 2012 data, we can clearly see the increase in the area of new plantation in Thailand, Vietnam has indeed a surge, and Vietnam in 2008 - 2012 new planting area is higher than other countries. With the rubber's planting cycle of 6-7 years, Vietnam's triumph over Malaysia in 2013 as the third largest producer of rubber is also a reason. Overall, 2013 - 2016 is a significant decline in the area of a few years, corresponding to 2019 - 2023 should be the growth of ANRPC supply a few years.
Rubber tree production period of up to 10 years, to the current distribution of Thai tree tree age point of view, by 2020, high yield tree or accounted for the majority. So the impact of Thailand's production capacity is more about whether the occurrence of disaster in the planting area, and the future increase in rubber production more attention in Vietnam. Natural rubber supply and demand gap is more demand growth is greater than supply growth.
ANRPC from the opening area, the total area of 2016 opened a total of 8.66 million hectares, and in recent years ANRPC cut rate is stable at about 75%. Indonesia's tapping area of 3.03 million hectares this year, the rate of 80%, while the Thai cut area of 2.83 million hectares, the opening rate of 91%. In general, the trend of ANRPC opening area is similar to the total acreage, while the total is increasing, but the growth rate is still decreasing from 4.6% in 2010 to 1.6% this year.